Long Term Trading – Page 5 – Best Online Trades

The Long Term Natural Gas Futures Chart Revisited

February 7, 2012March 23, 2010 by Tom

This is a quick editors note regarding my previous post on the long term natural gas futures chart. I forgot one very important part of that long term chart. I forgot to draw the long term up trendline (long red line) that has been in force since 1991 time period. This is a crucial element … Read more

The UNG Natural Gas ETF is Going into a Death Spiral

February 7, 2012March 22, 2010 by Tom

This may be one of the most important posts I ever write. Well, actually scratch that… this may be one of the most important precursor posts I ever write to the eventual ‘signal’ post that I do on the UNG natural gas ETF.

As of the date of this post, it is clear to me that the current most recent trend is down in natural gas futures. The recent natural gas inventory report that came out last Thursday at 10 am helped to kick off another bearish leg down in this all to abundant element. But my take is that there is a lot more to the story than that. There is a larger chart structure that may provide some significant clues as to what natural gas will do in the future. More on that in a moment…

But first I just think it is really fascinating how Natural Gas Futures have been behaving for the last year. It seems to have a completely independent mind of its own and could not care less what oil, gold, or the stock market is doing. This is an important fact and one of the reasons why I like to keep track of what it is doing.

Why? Because it can provide a potentially completely different and much better risk reward setup when most other securities and indexes are all doing pretty much the same thing. That trading dynamic is my favorite one because it potentially allows you to participate in a brand new trend that is in a completely different trading cycle than everything else. It allows you to completely separate from what 90% of what everyone else is doing.

New Trading Strategy Focusing in on CAGC China Agritech Inc.

February 7, 2012February 23, 2010 by Tom

I want to change focus a little bit and instead of worrying about the indexes and bull or bear market all the time, instead try to focus on strong momentum stocks that are actually making some money. CAGC seems to fit that category well. They are making good money, have good margins and momentum at … Read more

The Gold Price Initiates Breakout from 30 Year Cup and Handle Pattern !

February 7, 2012September 2, 2009 by Tom

I am only going to do one post today and it is going to be on the GLD ETF because I want to emphasize how important a day it was today in the gold market.

Today we broke out north from the large symmetrical triangle with confirmed volume and confirmed sign of strength. The triangle formation has been developing since February-March 2009 time frame. This is quite a large triangle and has significant cause for an extended move.

But there is even better news. This symmetrical triangle also makes up the right shoulder of the much larger head and shoulders bottom formation that has been in existence since March of 2008.

And there is even more better news. The entire head and shoulders bottom formation of approximately 1.5 years in duration is in itself the handle of a super large cup and handle formation which is 30 years long.

Today was an Absolutely Huge Day for Gold

February 7, 2012September 1, 2009 by Tom

Today was a huge day for gold and the GLD ETF in my opinion! Gold got a nice bid today and held firm. I consider it to be a possibly pivotal day for the gold market for two reasons.

The first reason is that despite the broad market break down today, the gold price (as represented by the GLD ETF) held firm all day and managed to trade up by about .60%. I hinted about this when it happened a few days ago and could be the early signs that foretell a scenario where the gold price becomes less “co dependent” on the broad market for its direction.

The second big reason I consider today to be a pivotal day for the gold price is because gold was able to trade up today despite the significant US dollar strength we saw throughout the day today. So we had the broad market down big, the US Dollar UP big and the gold price holding firm and managing to get a nice upside close.

Gold Price to Break Out by Labor Day?

February 7, 2012August 28, 2009 by Tom

Spot gold has some good upside action today but it is still early and we still do not know how the day will end. But so far today I am seeing bullish signs and a good possibility of a bullish closing weekly price bar to set us up for next week.

It would be superb if we can get a bullish weekly close going into next week.

I am seeing that the daily MACD has crossed up on the spot gold price for the fourth time since being in this large triangle. In the near term there is a slight tendency to an ascending triangle formation (green shaded area) in the chart.

Still, the spot gold price has not achieved a move above the 970 to 980 area that is necessary for me to say we are in breakout mode and have much higher confidence that the breakout is for real.

I Can See the Future and it Looks Like the 1974 S&P500

February 7, 2012August 27, 2009 by Tom

I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me what is in store for the future. But the closest thing to a crystal ball that I have found so far is the 1974 time period of the S&P500. The entire structure of the market during the time frame of 1968 to 1982 has given me a lot of good perspective and understanding about our current market and has helped to give me great clues and better confidence about where our current S&P500 may be headed in the future.

Now you may be asking yourself, what on earth does 1974 have to do with today ? Nothing actually. But what I have found over the years is that sometimes past market movements tend to rhyme and show similar structure and trend development.

Four Words Today Gold Up Dollar Down

February 7, 2012August 19, 2009 by Tom

The US Dollar got clobbered today and gold popped up like a basketball submerged under water. So far the supposed US Dollar rally is not materializing. The dollar is trying to rally but it cannot seem to get any real ease of movement to the upside. It still could, but it had better start soon because it is once again flirting with the critical longer term support line. The price action today in the dollar looked like a real sign of weakness to me.

Meanwhile the gold price is inching closer and closer to the completion of its symmetrical triangle formation and I am slowly gaining more and more confidence that we are going to see a real breakout from this market come beginning of September.

The dollar index just keeps failing to get a rally going and I am thinking if it keeps failing like this for the rest of August it might turn into a real severe drop in September. If that scenario plays out then it would help the gold price to finally get an upside breakout above the 1000 range.

Incidentally, if I am correct that we do get a gold price breakout, it will be important that the breakout materializes in the form of wide price spread and blockbuster volume on the upside. We will have to take a look at the GLD ETF to get confirmation.

I still think this gold price setup has the potential to be one of the greatest upside setups I have ever seen in my life if I am correct on us getting an upside break.

21.70 on the DGP ETF ( The gold double long ETF ) is for me the green light signal that the breakout has started to initiate. The “safer” upside trigger on the DGP ETF is 23.75 or above.

SP500 about to get a Bullish Monthly MACD Buy Signal

February 7, 2012August 11, 2009 by Tom

The SP500 is about to get a bullish monthly crossover on the MACD indicator, a popular moving average combination indicator that can become very useful over longer time frames. The monthly MACD signals can signify new major bull or bear market moves with sometimes 1 year or more duration.

The current daily MACD signal is starting to flash some near term sell signals and could set us up for a move to test the 940-945 range on the SP500.

It is confusing sometimes when you have a sell signal on one time frame and a buy signal on a different time frame. To help clear the confusion, I always keep in mind that the longer term time frames have precedence over the shorter ones. So while we could get some selling pressure into 940-945, we must remember that the longer term signal is indicating higher prices.

The Most Powerful Cycle Model Ever Created

February 7, 2012August 9, 2009 by Tom

In case you do not know about it yet, I would like to tell you about what I believe to be the most powerful cycle model ever created. I did not create it. It was created by a man named Marty Armstrong who headed the former Princeton Economics Institute which was an institutional advisory and money management firm. PEI as it was known has since been shut down by the United States government for reasons I can’t speak to because I don’t know the details or facts about them. But I will say that it is a crying shame that their business and knowledge was shut down because it was in my opinion some of the most valuable and important financial knowledge ever devised.

The former website itself used to have unbelievable amounts of historical research on money and financial panics going back hundreds and even thousands of years. The only reason I know about it is through a radio program that used to play in California and was hosted by Buzz Schwartz, a trader and radio host. He used to have Marty on as a guest and I listened to their interviews and his advice on markets. I also got a few of Marty’s monthly ‘Capital Market Review’ publications and that is how I am able to tell you about his cycle model.