Commodity ETF

Silver Futures Do Retest of Key Short Term Support

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Silver Futures seem to have managed a successful Wyckoff Retest of the near term and short term support range of 36.43.  Today they printed a hammer reversal and the low of the hammer was the break out level of 36.43.

In the short term I think it is important to hold 36.43, or the low of today’s hammer as validation that this was a successful retest.  Then it could allow the uptrend to resume, perhaps later this week.

In the case of the SLV silver ETF the support range comes in at 35.60.  I should say that there is a small bearish triple P pattern on the daily MACD histogram of the SLV right now.  This is still unconfirmed and would be confirmed on a close below today’s low in the SLV either tomorrow or later this week.

It still seems as though SLV is not finished with this run yet.  I still think there is upside to 40 range at some point and maybe even to 50.  Ideally tomorrow, the SLV will have an ‘up day’ and put the MACD histogram in a new potential bullish stance with possible follow on confirmation either Wednesday or later in the week.  It will be quite interesting given how many top calls there have been lately.  But sometimes top callers are right…

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Can Gold Break Out to a New Life Time High Next Week

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I just reviewed the weekly GLD gold price chart versus the MACD histogram and I think I have to come to the conclusion that there is a pretty good chance that next week is the upside weekly break out week for the GLD to new life time highs.

The nice thing about weekly charts is that they tend to smooth out all the noise.  In particular I am focusing on the point at which the weekly MACD histogram transfers from the negative to the positive (from under the zero line to above the zero line).  Every single time since early 2008, this occurrence in the GLD has led to and up week.

Now we see that the weekly MACD histogram is in a similar stance where it looks like it is just inches from transferring from under the zero line to above the zero line.  If the past is any guide, then we should see the GLD finish next week strongly higher in the form of an up weekly closes.  I cannot speak to the magnitude of the move, but it seems one can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that it should be an up move. 

Since the GLD is already so close to trading at new life time highs, I think it can be said that new life time highs should be able to be achieved as well…

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Silver ETF SLV Hits Higher High on 4 Month Record Volume Today

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The SLV ETF continues to trade like a champ with 35.78 as near term support.  The SLV today pushed to a higher high on record volume, the highest in about 4 months.  This to me is a bullish sign despite the fact that it had a somewhat bearish looking reversal by end of day.  In the after hours session the SLV managed to remove most of the intra day decline today.

I have drawn in some channel support lines on the SLV chart since the August 2010 time frame and I am able to start to speculate on some early possible targets and resistance points for the SLV ETF.  The SLV ETF is roughly about one dollar less than the futures price of silver.  I drew in some channel resistance lines that look like broadening wedges on the SLV ETF and it makes the case that the SLV will run into a strong resistance zone near the 41 to 42 range.  This is interesting because it also matches close to the silver price peak that I pointed out in the silver futures in 1980.

If you look carefully at the chart below you will see how I come to the conclusion of a 41 to 42 range stopping or pausing point for the SLV.  It is a point where the current broadening wedge meets the channel line of the previous run up in the SLV from the 2010 time frame.

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Silver ETF SLV Continues to Blast Higher to New 52 Week Highs

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Hi Ho Silver!  Silver is a leading indicator for gold and the stock market apparently right now.  It has blasted today to new 52 week highs and the RSI is currently right under the powerzone level of 70.  A blast above RSI 70 will send SLV into the powerzone and we could see some more big moves to the upside.

Gold was also strong today, but silver is leading the pack.  I suspect that both gold and the broad market will head higher again soon and silver wants to lead the way. What a great leading indicator.

Volume today on the SLV ETF nearly doubled what it was yesterday, a positive sign.  When I say that the SLV could see some extended big moves I am speculating this to be the case for the simple reason that silver is in a strong parabolic portion of its move where momentum is at an extreme.

Of course this is nice as long as the SLV keeps going up, but nothing grows to the sky forever.  Eventually there will be a violent pull back, especially in the more volatile silver sector.

It is a good idea to draw tight up trend lines and then just stay long as long as the up trend is not violated.  If it is, then it is the perfect excuse to stand aside until a clearer picture develops.

slv20110323

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A Potential Bearish Take on the GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF

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There is always a bullish and bearish take on any stock or index at any particular time.  The recent price action in the GLD ETF appears to have a bullish tone to it.  But when we look at the larger structure there emerges a potentially different scenario. This potential bearish scenario is currently unconfirmed and … Read more