I have been having a few technical difficulties with the bestonlinetrades website the last few days and today and it is the reason I was not able to update with more tonight. In fact today I thought I wiped out the entire database of postings (close to 900 I think). This was not the case but it almost felt like a very bad losing trade.
Anyway, I will have more coverage this week and tomorrow on if-why-how we could be at an important trend change in the market. Generally speaking tops are very difficult to time in my experience and also very frustrating because they are so slowly developing most of the time.
The challenge is to identify enough criteria that build enough evidence for a top. It is like a jury trying to make a decision and weight all the evidence. Sometimes part of the evidence can be anecdotal, instead of just technical.
I am going to be analyzing the long term price chart of crude oil futures this week in addition to some other commodities. My sense is that we are in not only for a parabolic move in gold and silver but also crude oil ! The Middle East is about to blow up and we are going to get an oil crisis part 2, perhaps somewhat of an echo as what occurred in the 1970’s.
One has to wonder how much less people will be willing to pay X dollars for an iphone or an ipad with gas at $10 a gallon and a gallon of milk also at $10 per gallon. Something has to give.
I am having a very hard time believing that the sp500 will still be able to strut higher with the same confidence as it had before with a $140 oil price. And $140 is not as far away as one might at first thing.
Even if the ‘Libya’ situation is resolved or somehow fizzles out for a while oil will likely continue higher in time. It will likely take a big hit down on some Libya peace news, but that will likely only be a temporary respite. It would also likely lead to a huge surge in the stock market, but that is likely to be fake.
Even the monthly price chart of some indices are start to set up bearishly which would align with a continued drop in the typical “Sell in May and go Away” mantra.
In other news The BestOnlineTrades ‘Best of the Best’ stock setup pick SCON behaved quite well today despite the market drop. It may continue to perform close to what I have predicted. It may surge to close to $5 at which price it would be a sell and especially it would be a sell at 3:59PM this Wednesday March 9th. It was up afterhours today so we will have to see how it does the next two days.
SCON was a high confidence pick of mine and I would like to see it evolve as I have predicted, but of course there are no guarantees…
There are important levels to be aware of in the indices assuming we start to evolve into a bearish more persistent trend… More on that this week…
The last 9 days in the stock market sure do seem and feel like distribution to me. A break down from the bearish flag formation would help prove that case sometime this week…