general visitor

GRRF China GrenTech Corporation May Fill the Gap then Find Trendline Support

by

grrf20090825

GRRF had a huge upward breakout spike in early August on some good earnings numbers.  Since that price spike the price of GRRF has been trending down within a steep down trend channel denoted by the yellow dotted lines (click on chart to see full size).

Right now I am thinking that GRRF is going to retrace this huge move and attempt to fill the large opening breakout gap and maybe come down into the low 4 range.

If it can fill this gap and hold support at the 4.10 range then I think GRRF may have a shot at resuming the uptrend and get a test going of the high volume swing high that created the gap.

GRRF should be able to fill this channel and make a decision no later than September 8th, 2009.  But I am going to have to watch price and see how it behaves when and if it is able to get into the low 4 range.

Read more

DRYS DryShips May be Headed for a Triple Bottom

by

drys20090825

DRYS DryShips over the past year has had some really huge swings and enormous daily volumes.  It rallied from a price of 3 to 16 in the past and then made a double bottom and rallied from 3 to 11.  Clearly  DRYS is capable of making some big moves on the upside and downside.

The current structure of the chart suggests to me that DRYS is still not done with its bear market yet despite the huge intermittent rallies.  It has a strong down trending force defined by the green down trendline and so far has obeyed that downward force.  Price has not been able to break above this line. 

So we still have a generally bearish trend in DRYS.

Read more

HBAN Huntington Bancshares is Nearing a Decision Point

by

hban20090825

HBAN is nearing a decision point after a somewhat lengthy uptrend since March of this year and a few intermittent spike rallies.  HBAN has a somewhat similar setup to the FITB setup that I had written about in the past.

HBAN has been consolidating between roughly the 3.5 and 5 level for several months now and has already touched the bottom up trendline 5 times giving it good significance.

I cannot speak as to whether HBAN will be able to get an upside move off of this structure into the green shaded area.  Typically the market in general is vulnerable this time of year to some downside shakeouts.  But so far the broad market is holding up like a champ.  The retracements have been intraday retracement and not significant corrections.

Read more

Spot Gold Price Daily Chart Shows a Double Inside Day

by

gld20090825

If you ever want to know what it feels like to be bi-polar, all you have to do is start watching the gold price on a daily basis.  Two days ago gold was up big leading one to believe that a breakout may start.  Then the next day the gold price took a major body blow to the downside.  Then today (at least so far) spot gold popped right back up again.

But this ‘bi polar’ type price action is accomplishing something important.  It is filling in the large symmetrical triangle that has formed in the gold price since the mid February 2009 time frame.  This is a large triangle and has a lot of significance in terms of the amount of of energy that is being built up.

Read more

EPEX Edge Petroleum Breaks Out with a Sign of Strength

by

epex20090824

I had mentioned EPEX a few other times casually because I though it had some good potential based on an important volume swing test in early June and early May 2009.

When I first started writing about EPEX I was intrigued by the substantial high volume swing test that occurred on June 1st.  That was a very important clue as to the behavior of this stock because it was telling me that we would have a good chance of revisiting those levels.

But when I first mentioned it on July 28th, 2009, the price was languishing in a somewhat choppy confusing price pattern that seemed like it was going nowhere.  Despite the confusing price action there were still well defined resistance lines and support lines that contained price and gave good parameters to work with.

Read more

S&P500 Index has Possible Short Term Bearish Divergence

by

spy20090824

The S&P500 had an intraday reversal today and price closed near the opening price creating a reversal hammer on the candlestick chart.  But perhaps more significant than that the S&P500 created this reversal hammer early in the week and has created a possible short term bearish divergence between the relative strength index and the S&P500 closing price for the month of August.

There are only 5 days left in the month of August not including today and it has me thinking some sort of correction may start here.  The follow through sign that a correction will continue is if the relative strength index fails to make anymore upwards headway and if the SP500 breaks down below minor support near the 1014 level.

Read more

Some Final Comments on CTIC Cell Therapeutics

by

CTIC20090824

I may do one last follow up on CTIC in the future, but this update will serve as a final commentary for now.  I would like to remain bullish on CTIC and tell you that it is going to do a continuation breakout, but after today’s price action I just cannot bring myself to do it.

You remember in a previous update I mentioned about how CTIC was extending very far into the apex of this symmetrical triangle and how that can sometimes weaken potential breakouts.  Too much energy can sometimes be lost when a stock extends out too far into the apex of a symmetrical triangle.

So it is very possible that we are dealing with a failed breakout here and now a return back into the apex of the triangle.  If that happens then CTIC could be at risk of breaking down even more thereafter.

Read more

Almost Never Hold a Stock or ETF after a Shooting Star Candle or Price Bar

by

cegeshootingstar

After a stock has had a significant advance it usually never pays in my experience to hold on after you see a price bar reversal that resembles a shooting star candle stick.

There are specific definitions of exactly how a shooting star candle stick should look.  But in my experience, any price bar that shows a large intra day advance above the days previous high and then closes back under that high and near the bottom of the range is a very bearish short term signal for me.

It seems like almost every time I have seen one of these price bars the next day or few days price action has been very weak and down.

Sometimes these reversal bars can lead to really significant price destruction for a long time.  It all depends in what phase of the trading cycle a stock is in.  But regardless of the phase it is in, most of the time it is prudent to bail out and seek safer waters.

Read more

Edge Petroleum Corp EPEX Trying to Breakout North from Rectangle

by

epex20090821

EPEX is trying to get some kind of a breakout move going but so far has been unable to get any kind of confirmation.

On Friday August 21st, it did manage to get another upward advance within the rectangle (defined by the blue horizontal and blue dotted horizontal) and also get a close above the down trend resistance line.  The volume also got a nice surge going today and may be an early sign that EPEX is close to getting above the .50 level.

It needs to get above and hold above .50 for me to start thinking a new uptrend has started.  So far still a no go, but I will take today’s action as a possible early clue.

Also note on the EPEX oil stock chart (click on it for full size) above the top left corner of the chart where I show the USO oil ETF.  It is possible that the USO oil ETF is close to completing a head and shoulders bottom formation.  I would think a northward breakout from that formation would definitely help the cause of EPEX finding a way to get a new uptrend going.

Read more