general visitor

Market Bullish Tendencies Keep Rolling on

by

The market is zooming right into April and the previous monthly MARIBUZU (almost a maribuzu) candlestick is so far evolving into anther maribuzu candlestick for April.  The market is strong. There is no denying it.  The WEEKLY relative strength index is getting close to busting into the 70th percentile powerzone which is a rare but … Read more

Time for a Change in Trading Strategy Towards Gold and Precious Metals

by

I am a bit frustrated with the stock market indexes right now.  In fact to be honest with you I am sick of them.  There are still opportunities on the long side on plenty of individual stocks (Las Vegas Sands Corp is one of them), but in my opinion it is too late to jump into the long side of any indices, even if they do go to 1200 to 1250 on the SP500.

Where is the risk reward ?

The risk to reward ratio on the indices right now seems like it is close to 2 to 1.  Two ounces of risk for every ounce of reward.

Now as far as the short side of the market and the inverse ETFS such as the Direxion Daily Small Cp Bear 3X Shs (TZA) ETF, it would seem that this inverse ETF still offers some good risk reward to the upside.  But the problem is that today’s close in the indices was still more of the same.  Inching higher like slow water torture 1 point, 1 day at a time for the next 30 days.  That trading dynamic can go on for a long time and to be honest I don’t know when it will stop.

So that means that despite the apparent  good risk reward in the inverse bear ETFS, unless they start performing from the get-go next week, it will be more of the same as their inverse dribble down relationship mirrors the dribble up move of broad market indices.

Read more

I can come up with a Million Reasons why the Market Should go Down

by

But the problem is I am just a tiny water droplet and the market itself is an entire ocean.  The market could care less what I think and it will do exactly what it wants to do on its own time.

I have done a number of posts on what appear to be good reasons for a near term bearish resolution in price behavior for the sp500 and most other major broad market indices.  But despite that recent bias, I have to pinch myself and at least consider a bullish possibility for the market going into the long Easter holiday weekend.

By many measures the market is overbought.  But a market just being overbought is sometimes not enough of a reason for it to decline.  It can continue into ‘tilt mode’ overbought before any meaningful price reversal occurs.

The jobs report is coming out this Friday.  There will be no trading that day.  So whatever the results are of that report will have 3 full days to build up and stew over the long weekend.  That 3 day rest period before a market reaction usually leads to a very big opening move to start the following week.  And the market as of late has a very strong habit of being up on Mondays.

But everything seems to be relying on the interpretation of Friday’s jobs report.  Most of the news lately has been good news and it just seems to keep on coming, so why should this Friday be any different ?

I can speculate until I am blue in the face and will still not be able to figure out how the market will react on Monday of next week.

So here are the cold hard facts based on the chart:

sp50020100401 

The SP500 since early February has been in a very strong uptrend.  In early March it broke out above a significant resistance line with a moderate sign of strength and then attempted to retest the breakout area a few days later.

Read more

Dow Jones Industrial Average and SP500 show Hanging Man Candlestick

by

Breaking news development… The Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the SP500 Index are currently as the time of this posting showing another potential bearish implication candlestick formation. The formation is the bearish hanging man candlestick.  This candlestick looks like a bullish hammer, has a small body shape and a tail that is at … Read more

The Stock Market Lions are Sleeping Today

by

AAAAAs_u3IkAAAAAAIDjiQToday was about as boring a day as I can remember in the stock market.  In fact it seems like it is Christmas 2010 already or the day before the new year.  You give me a dollar and I will give you a dollar back, and then we do that about a thousand more times.  That pretty much sums it up for today.

I attempted to go long LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp today but then got scared and jumped out within about 15 minutes.  I made that decision because of the volume non confirmation I mentioned in my previous post.  Today could have been the final low in Las Vegas Sands Corp before moving higher, but for now anyway I am going to stand aside.  I am just too nervous about the general market as a whole.  And honestly the ideal entry for LVS should have been way down near 16 and change.  That is where the MACD buy signal was generated and now the MACD is toppy and overbought.

So why didn’t I grab some LVS near 16 and change? Good question.  Probably because it was not jumping out at me at the time.  But that is always the tendency of the best buy setups, they are always quiet and not obvious at first.

I think I am scared money right now. I can’t help it.  I would rather not be too committed towards either side of the fence.  I would rather be right on the fence right now.

Read more