I think yesterday, March 20th I became a bit too quick to raise the white flag. Given today’s sharp reversal and the break down in the BBH biotech index, the re establishment of downtrend in the Mclellan oscillator and moving averages and the nature of the high volume reversal, I have to go back now to my original short thesis ( seen here ).
The market is taking a long time to rollover which is not unusual. The problem is if one watches it too closely for too long, waiting for it to rollover, then it becomes a psychological disadvantage. It is moving like a slow oil tanker waiting until the last minute to break down. Today was enough of a key reversal day that we can label today’s high as the final ‘line in the sand’ of the bull versus bear debate. If we close above today’s high in the SPY of 189.02 then the bear scenario should prove ineffective. However, any further weakness from today forward should serve to slowly start to increase downside momentum. Of course there will be upside reaction rallies, but this market right now looks like it is on borrowed time and we should start to see very high volatility at the latest by the week that starts March 31st 2014.