I Screwed up the UAUA UAL Corporation Trade

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I hope this post does not turn into a rant.  I screwed up and missed the UAUA trade yesterday and it has been bothering me all day today.  I didn’t even bother to write up the possible scenario here at BestOnlineTrades and maybe that is partly why I screwed up the trade because I did not talk myself through the necessary parameters of this trade.

Two days ago I did my usual scans of almost 5000 nasdaq and NYSE stocks and nothing was coming up in my scans.  Nothing good was coming up anyway and so I was getting discouraged.  Also I have been somewhat off center lately because I have been confusing my own forecasts with that of other’s who are looking for market crashes and big downside.  I am not blaming others for my own general confusion now, I am just saying me dipping my hands into the cookie jar of other’s market forecasts has messed up my own judgement.  That is just a fact.

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I still like ABK Ambac Financial for a Potential Buy Setup

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Despite how lousy the broad market has been lately and will probably continue to be, I am still watching ABK Ambac Financial for a possible buy setup.  I would like to see ABK get over 1.75 and also see volume come in heavy again.

I am thinking that ABK probably will not be able to do that until a couple more weeks consolidation.  I could be wrong, but that is the theory I am running with right now.

ABK’s business is supposed to be dead right now along with the other bond insurers because they are not writing new business.  But then why are the stock prices trending up so bullishly? The stock prices are powering higher apparently because of an uptick in home sales which could mean lower losses on mortgage backed securities.

But as you probably know by now I am not a ‘fundamental kind of guy’.  I am more a technical analysis kind of guy (that sounds bad doesn’t it ?).

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ABK Ambac Financial Group May Recover after Market Correction Ends

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Ambac Financial Group has been trading in a sideways trading range for almost a year and has not managed to break out above the green congestion area shown in the chart (click on it for full size).

It is clear now that the broad market is in a corrective process and that we are likely to see lower prices in the weeks ahead.  How deep and long that correction runs is a mystery to me still at this point. 

I would expect ABK to get some sympathy downside from the broad market decline in the weeks ahead.  But at some point ABK may be setting up for an upside breakout out of this trading range.  The thing I like the most is the huge volume accumulation in the month of August.  It could be an early sign that a major new uptrend is in the works.

Still, ABK is very volatile and needs to work off some of the recent spike it just had. 

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LEAP Leap Wireless International May Be Set up for a 10% Upside Move

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LEAP looks like a good setup to possible deliver about 10% returns starting from tomorrow in the AM.  I found leap by doing a stock scan of over 4700 nasdaq and NYSE stocks filtering for MACD daily buy signal and RSI less than 50.

Only 6 stocks came up from the scan because I had put the limitation that they should also be trading greater than 1 million shares.

LEAP looks good to me for several reasons.  It is doing a retest of an important late November 2008 swing low.  The daily MACD has extended to the downside and has given a bullish cross.  Relative Strength Index is very oversold and looks like it will soon give a buy signal.

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CBL CBL & Associates Properties May Get a Cup and Handle Breakout Soon

CBL looks like it has a cup and handle setup and if CBL can get a price move above 8.80 I think we could see breakout type action and a continuation uptrend. CBL probably should have been the first stock I mentioned today.  All the others I have talked about so far today are not … Read more

GRRF China GrenTech Corporation May Fill the Gap then Find Trendline Support

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GRRF had a huge upward breakout spike in early August on some good earnings numbers.  Since that price spike the price of GRRF has been trending down within a steep down trend channel denoted by the yellow dotted lines (click on chart to see full size).

Right now I am thinking that GRRF is going to retrace this huge move and attempt to fill the large opening breakout gap and maybe come down into the low 4 range.

If it can fill this gap and hold support at the 4.10 range then I think GRRF may have a shot at resuming the uptrend and get a test going of the high volume swing high that created the gap.

GRRF should be able to fill this channel and make a decision no later than September 8th, 2009.  But I am going to have to watch price and see how it behaves when and if it is able to get into the low 4 range.

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DRYS DryShips May be Headed for a Triple Bottom

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DRYS DryShips over the past year has had some really huge swings and enormous daily volumes.  It rallied from a price of 3 to 16 in the past and then made a double bottom and rallied from 3 to 11.  Clearly  DRYS is capable of making some big moves on the upside and downside.

The current structure of the chart suggests to me that DRYS is still not done with its bear market yet despite the huge intermittent rallies.  It has a strong down trending force defined by the green down trendline and so far has obeyed that downward force.  Price has not been able to break above this line. 

So we still have a generally bearish trend in DRYS.

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HBAN Huntington Bancshares is Nearing a Decision Point

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HBAN is nearing a decision point after a somewhat lengthy uptrend since March of this year and a few intermittent spike rallies.  HBAN has a somewhat similar setup to the FITB setup that I had written about in the past.

HBAN has been consolidating between roughly the 3.5 and 5 level for several months now and has already touched the bottom up trendline 5 times giving it good significance.

I cannot speak as to whether HBAN will be able to get an upside move off of this structure into the green shaded area.  Typically the market in general is vulnerable this time of year to some downside shakeouts.  But so far the broad market is holding up like a champ.  The retracements have been intraday retracement and not significant corrections.

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