Long Term Charts

SPY ETF Long Term Up Trend Line Should Hold

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Yesterday we touched a very important long term up trend line.  The up trend line that has been in force since the March 6, 2009 low.  This long term up trend line has now been touched 3 times including yesterday.  The line represents the bullish trend.  Despite all the sideways price action over the last … Read more

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF Long Term Chart Looks Very Bullish

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The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF monthly long term candlestick chart looks very constructive right now.  The GDX has pretty much been left for dead for almost a year now.  The argument has been that because the mining stock index has not broken out to new all time highs, that we should assume it is … Read more

NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc Looks Very Bullish as Position Trade

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Like a cheetah in the tall African grasses, I have been watching NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc for several weeks now.  This biotech stock first caught my eye as I was scanning through the sector lists in the category biotech stocks.  I was looking at each each stock in this sector one by one (there were … Read more

PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF Forming A Massive Head and Shoulders

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The PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF monthly chart is quite an amazing sight to behold.  I just did a post about how the current market structure could be similar to that of the mid 1970’s time frame and could potentially evolve bullishly instead of bearishly. If you look at the long term monthly chart … Read more

Does it Seem Unthinkable to Consider Being Bullish into 2012

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The bullishness is simply astounding lately.  It is remarkable.  Undeniable at this point.  It seems like we are up almost every Monday of the week, every Friday of the week and most days in between.

So that must mean we are overbought and ready for an extended nasty decline that will be horrible and scary right ?

Not necessarily.

Yes sentiment is at extremes, technical indicators are at extremes and it really does feel like at least a minor or intermediate pullback is way overdue.  But my take going forward continues to be that the market will keep trying to frustrate the heck out of those who wish to short it.

I tried to short this market several times since October 2009 and most of those attempts failed.  The only one that succeeded was the one in October 2009.  I was lucky to catch that mini decline.  But all the other attempts failed.

Why did they fail? They failed because the primary trend is still very strongly up and in that type of environment every pullback is generally weak and the strong upward trend is eager to reassert itself.

The issue now is what should your general 1 to 2 year trading bias be? Is it even possible to have that long a forecast?  Generally speaking the farther you go out in terms of time, the more difficult it is to get a handle on potential price bias.

Unless…

Unless you have some very large patterns to work with or some other major market clues ( such as foreign indices or commodities ).

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Silver Futures Looking Extremely Bullish next 6 to 12 months

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If I am starting to sound somewhat repetitive, I am doing it on purpose.  Here at Best Online Trades I like to try to focus on the best risk reward scenarios at any given time.  Sometimes they are short term scenarios, other times longer term scenarios.

What has me very keen and interested right now is the precious metals sector.  And now even more so, the silver sector.  One of the most under rated and under covered sectors worldwide, the silver sector (which includes the silver price itself and the silver mining stocks) may be about to come more alive than any other sector in the market place.

The issue is though which is the best area of silver to participate in assuming a new strong bull leg is coming ?  My own personal take is that the AGQ ProShares Ultra Silver ETF is probably the best way to play the likely coming move in silver.  The AGQ is leveraged twice positively towards the silver price.  So if the silver price manages to make a 100% run in the next 1 to 1.5 years, then AGQ should perform close to 200%.

Now tell me where else in the next 12 to 18 months can you expect a 200% return? In the stock market ?  Bond Market ?  Real Estate?  Probably no, no and no again.

Individual silver mining stocks should get a good run going as well.  But since I have been watching the precious metals mining stocks since 2003 I can say that in general I have been usually disappointed in many or even most individual mining stocks performance relative to the metal itself or even ETFS.  There are just too many uncontrollable variables with the individual miners.  Why take all that extra risk when you have leveraged ETFs? I suppose it comes down to a question of greed since in some cases you will find individual mining stocks (juniors) go up by factors of 2, 5 or 10 of most other instruments.

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This may be the most amazing gold chart I have ever seen

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You really need to study this long term gold mining stock index chart.  It was sent to me by a buddy of mine and the chart was made by one of the regular blog posters over at www.jsmineset.com . 

It is a super long term gold mining stock index chart that goes all the way back to the 1920’s.  What absolutely blows my mind about this chart is that it shows that the GOLD MINING STOCK sector has still not really even had a breakout from the trading range that began in 1980 !!!

This is an amazing chart!

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A few Observations on the XAU Mining Stock Index

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The XAU Gold and Silver Mining stock index has a reputation for being extremely volatile and choppy.  It is a slow moving beast and is also represented by the GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Mining stocks and mining stock indices remind me of biotech stocks because they both seem to trade very erratically with … Read more