ETFS

Gold Market versus US Dollar Battle Update

by

glduup

Today was a pretty wild day in the gold market.  Gold was up pretty good going into the FOMC meeting, then it sold off hard right on the FOMC decision and the US Dollar as represented by the the UUP ETF started rallying big time and was starting to create a very bullish looking hammer with price moving to the top of the bar.

By end of day, gold as represented by the GLD ETF was able to get some footing and settle for a mid range close.  The UUP also got a mid range close.  It is nice to see that the GLD ETF got a little bit of bounce going on the blue channel line I had mentioned several times before.  But it is still too close to call on whether the channel support holds for the GLD.  Perhaps the next two trading days will tell the tale.

I would absolutely love to see the GLD ETF hold this blue channel line and get a move going back UP again and towards the top portion of the channel.  That would be exciting because it could imply another possible (and maybe final ?) breakout attempt of the top portion of the symmetrical triangle.

Read more

The Gold Market Battle Continues

by

gld20090811

The GLD today barely did anything but is still inside this blue trending channel which I talked about previously being important for a ‘breakout by September 10th’ scenario.  The volume today was really light on the GLD and it looks to me like the success or failure of the retest of the bottom of the blue channel line could occur tomorrow.

If we break under the blue channel line then it is going to open the door to another retest of the bottom of the symmetrical triangle (the green line).  If that happens it will be critical to hold the bottom of that triangle for an eventual breakout later in September or the final quarter of this year.

I would like to see the US Dollar break down tomorrow and see gold jump right back topside to make another attack on the top portion of the triangle.  But what I wish for and what happens are two entirely different things.  The US Dollar still looks like it wants to pop to the upside as a resolution to its bullish divergence.  But maybe something out of tomorrows FOMC will change that outcome? 

Read more

GLD ETF Meandering inside a Triangle

by

gld20090807

You probably just read my previous post on the US Dollar index where I talked about how the dollar really needs to stay below that funny blue looking line to keep it in a near term bear trend. 

But now we are looking at the GLD ETF which is in a sideways triangle.  Triangles can be a real pain because volume gets really light as price compresses into the triangle.  I am starting to think that the GLD ETF is going to make another trip to the bottom boundary of this triangle near the red shaded circle on the chart.

Read more

UNG Natural Gas ETF starting to look more and more bullish

by

ung20090805

On a risk to reward basis which is the better trade? The gold trade or the natural gas trade?  I think they are close to equal ground, but the more I think about the more I think that the UNG ETF Natural Gas trade is the one that has more merit in terms of maximum risk reward.

But let me be clear, the UNG ETF potential move is still a much different animal than the gold market.  I don’t think it can be said that natural gas is in a long term bull market.  It is an entirely different animal.  But nevertheless it has had a massive bear market crushing decline and now looks like it wants to get started on the ‘busted pattern’ setup that I had mentioned a couple times before.

Read more

Gold Futures Gold ETFs and Gold Stocks Blockbuster Trade Alert

by

alert

BestOnlineTrades is issuing this blockbuster trade alert on the gold sector.  Whether it be Gold Futures, Gold ETFS (such as the GLD or DGP ETF), micro cap through large cap gold stocks, or even long dated call options, we believe the gold trade will be the most popular and productive trade for the next 9 to 12 months.

This is a very important alert and we feel that this alert may go down in history as being the most valuable and important alert we have ever issued. 

BestOnlineTrades has studied the gold market carefully since 2003.  We have seen and recognized the beginnings of this bull market at that time and feel that right now, perhaps even as soon as this week the gold trade will activate and turn into one of the biggest breakouts the world has ever seen.  It may not seem like a breakout at first, and it may disguise itself by transforming into a ‘slow motion’ breakout, but we believe it will still be seen in hindsight as being transformational.

While we do not talk too much about fundamentals here at BestOnlineTrades, we remain open to the possibility that inflationary trends will start to become more entrenched and severe during the next 9 to 12 months.  Part of the reason for this observation has to do with the fact that the US Dollar Index precisely aligned and topped with the April 21st, 2009 Marty Armstrong Cycle date precisely.  The Marty Armstrong Cycle is a very powerful 8.6 year global business cycle model that has proven itself to pick extremely important turning points in major markets worldwide.  The fact that the US Dollar has aligned itself to the model is an event in our opinion that is not to be taken lightly.

Read more

What I learned looking at 415 ETF Charts Yesterday

by

Yesterday I downloaded from an online database the entire full list of all ETFS and then converted their symbols so that they could be displayed in my charting program.  I am not too sure why I did not do this before because I can tell you with zero doubt that ETS are really a superb trading and investing vehicle.

You’ve got leverage, liquidity, choice, flexibility, low fees.  I mean what more could you ask for ? Why even bother with stocks or futures or anything else for that matter when you have ETFS?  It is something to think about for sure.  Me personally I like to have as many options as possible, because you never really know where a good trading setup might come from.  Yes there could be a great ETF trading setup, but there could also be a great setup in a penny stock, a blue chip, a Canadian stock, many places!

But I can tell you after scanning through 415 ETF charts one by one in my charting program something occurred to me.  A lot of their patterns look the same and…

95% of them follow what the SP500 does!

It’s true.  Most of them bottomed in March 2009 and most of them have been moving up since then.  Some stronger than others, but their primary direction has been in line with the SP500.  Perhaps this is an obvious point since many ETFS contain sector component stocks which also trade on the SP500.  And some of them just follow specific sectors.  Even commodity ETFS followed the SP500 as well.

Read more

QQQQ Does a Full Intra Day Reversal Today

by

qqqq20090730

Remember I did this post on the SP500?  I was talking about how we are somewhat constrained by this top line resistance that has some tendency to a broadening wedge formation.  Then I did a post a couple days ago on the QQQQ and said that the QQQQ’s seem to be signaling a top based on a test of previous swing with 26% lighter volume.

But Today the Market was up like the 4th of July!

Yes it was.  I thought for sure I would have egg all over my face after saying that the QQQQ’s had signaled a short term top based on the price retest on 26% less volume and a price close under that relevant price swing.

Read more

QQQQ has a Non Event Day

by

qqqq20090729 Yesterday I was talking about how I noticed a confirmation sell signal on the QQQQ’s based on price and volume.  But today we really don’t seem to have confirmation either way. Volume was slightly higher on the Q’s but as far as price goes we did not test either the high or low of yesterday so we really don’t have much new information to go on.  Today is considered an ‘inside day’ since we stayed within the low and high of yesterday.  Tomorrow, if we again stay within the low and high of today, then that will be a ‘double inside day’ and would be a sign that a big move is coming.  Confused yet?

But seriously, double inside days can lead to big price moves.  They problem is they do not give a directional indication, just a general signal that a big move may be coming.  But since we don’t have a double inside day yet there is nothing to go on.

The market in general seems very reluctant to give any price back despite my signal for short term bearishness.  Perhaps it is not surprise since we are really getting close to super low volume summer doldrums season coming up here in August.  I suspect that if we do get a pullback in the next week or two, that it may be really quite a lame one.

Read more

Professional Investment Strategies ETF Trends

by

globaltrends

Don’t ask me how I stumbled upon the ETF Trends website but I did.  But then I happened to stumble upon Tom Lydon’s Global Trends Investments and I have to say that after reading the main page it was refreshing to see his strategy clearly spelled out right from the get-go without any having to dig through tons of prospectus material or other fine print.

It seems like almost every professional fund management site I have been to is not too clear on exactly how they plan to manage your money or what their specific strategy is.  Perhaps they are but it takes a while to find out the real details.  That has been my experience anyway, maybe you have a different one.  But anyway I am going to call Tom Lydon ‘The ETF Guy’ because his site ETFTrends focuses on only one thing, ETFs.

Here is the quote from the main page of Global Trends:

At Global Trends Investments, we follow an investment discipline using the 200-day moving average and exchange traded funds.  When the markets are above the trend line, we are invested, and when they are below, we are in cash.  If there are no areas trending in the right direction, we exit equities completely and sit on the sidelines until the market trends turn.  We also have an 8% stop-loss, so when holdings are 8% off their high, the position is sold.  This exit strategy helps protect you from losing all of the gains made.

What a nice clear statement of strategy.  I like that.  I like it even more because there are technical criteria that make up the fund management strategy.

Read more