Tom

BestOnlineTrades may Focus Exclusively on CTIC Cell Therapeutics

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ctic20090815

I hate to turn BestOnlineTrades into a ‘one trick pony’ for the next couple of weeks, but I may spend a lot of time covering CTIC Cell Therapeutics in a multi part series.  I will still cover some other topics as well, but I would rather focus in like a laser on CTIC and see what can be learned about its behavior and possible outcomes.

The chart of CTIC is notable for several reasons.  It clearly has a solid uptrend with very respectable advancing volume since the March 2009 time frame.  So it has shown us a clear sign of strength off of a major bear market bottom.  This is important because it helps to give added probability for possible future price direction.

Also notable is the fact that CTIC has consolidated sideways for roughly 3 and a half months AND it has not given back too much in the way of price. In other words, price has held relatively firm during the consolidation instead of slanting down or going into a deeper retracement.

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Don’t Ever Feel Bad about Making 5 Percent on a Trade

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It took me a long time to learn this and to be honest I still have not 100% learned this principle.  What am I talking about ?

I am talking about that feeling you get when you enter a trade, it starts to go your way and you sell ‘early’ taking your 5 or 10 percent only to see the stock zoom higher onto much bigger gains.  So then you might start the ‘coulda shoulda woulda’ syndrome where you start to regret the fact that you jumped out too early or made a mistake in your judgment.

This has happened to me many times and each time it happens I almost have to pinch myself so that I remember that THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER TRADE OUT THERE.  There is no reason to feel bad about making 5 or 10 percent even if a stock goes on to make 200%.  Why? Because there will always be more opportunities for other entries and setups that are just as good or better.  Sometimes they do not show up that often, but eventually they will come and you will be there to pounce on them.

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BestOnlineTrades Nails the CORS Trade

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cors20090814

I am putting this post in the ‘trading flashback’ category.  It is a category where I look back at trades I have talked about and try to introspect as to why they either failed or succeeded.

I first mentioned CORS Corus Bankshares on August 12th in the evening.  It was trading at .33 cents at end of day August 12th.  Today we hit an intra day high of .65 or almost a full 100% move in just two days.  Clearly this is the power of penny stocks and outsized potential returns, but with added risk.

On my first post on CORS I said and I quote:

First CORS needs to get above .33 and close up above that level.  I would prefer to see a full price bar above .33 as a signal that a big pop could start.  I think we have a good shot at the beginnings of a breakout type move tomorrow and then maybe a low volume pullback Friday, and then the real run early next week sometime.

As it turns out the run did not wait until next week.

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GLD ETF slightly Pierces Uptrend Channel

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gld20090814

The GLD ETF slightly violated the blue uptrend channel I have been talking about this week.  The close was inside the channel however and the volume on today’s decline was really light.  I don’t like the fact that we slightly pierced the channel today but for now it is not the end of the world.

Within this up trending channel there is a slight tendency to an ascending triangle pattern with the green dotted line being the supply line and the bottom blue line being the demand line.  If I am correct in that assessment then it implies that there is not too much room left in the apex of this ascending triangle and either the pattern fails or we get a topside breakout out of the pattern which would have measurement implications within the critical upside breakout area.

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Is a Sideways Correction the Worst the Bears will Give us?

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spy20090814  The SP500 was down on this Friday the second week of August.  But am I surprised? No. Not really.  This is about the time that traders head for the beaches. Plus it is starting to get way too hot and humid outside to be sitting in a room in front of the computer all day.  So a good bunch of them probably just sold to cash today and headed for the beach or the pool or for their favorite ice chilled beverage of choice.

All the bears could manage today was another down day within the smaller green channel I have drawn in the chart.  I am still open to the possibility of 95 on the SPY ETF as a normal corrective retracement and testing of the breakout area.  It would get us into the ‘grey zone’ so to speak and help correct off some excesses.

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UNG Natural Gas ETF Cannot get the Job Done

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ung20080813

I talked about the UNG ETF several other times and at this point I am going to just have to put it in the freezer for while.  The trend has been relentlessly bearish.  I thought a couple of weeks ago that the UNG Natural Gas ETF would be able to get some sort of spike rally higher based on the monthly chart because there were some weekly divergences building and the monthly chart was showing at least some promise of a reversal in August.

But as of today the chart looks weak and horrible.  Today and yesterday we briefly broke under trendline support and may warn of an impending break below which could be really bearish.

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A Quick Review of PACR Pacer International

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pace20080813

Here at BestOnlineTrades I like to look back on what I talked about and see where things either went right or wrong.  It is useful because it helps me figure out how I might be able to improve in the future or eliminate errors in judgment.  I highly recommend that you do the same.  It is really easy to make a trade and then forget about it, especially if the trade went bad and you lost money.  But if you take at least a little time to review some past trades it could serve you well in the long run.

I first talked about PACR on July 31st, 2009.  On that day the close was 2.49.  Today it is 4.26 or 71% higher.  This was an outstanding setups in many respects.  PACR had a bottom in March and then a double bottom retest in July.  It then went into a compression of sorts in the form of a triangle and the price trigger was activated on July 31st.  The volume on the breakout was outstanding.

The most ideal entry for PACR would have been on July 30th even though it was still inside the pattern.  A buy stop probably would have worked quite well on PACE just above the down trending resistance line.

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The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) Gets a Good Bounce Back Inside Channel

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gld20090813 The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD was able to get a nice bounce going today off of blue trendline and channel support.

I am starting to get a few grey hairs watching this gold price trade inside the channel and also within the larger triangle.  I imagine that there are plenty of gold bugs out there who are also growing a little bit impatient with gold.  The GLD has been trading and consolidating going all the way back since March 2008.  In terms of trading time, that is a lot of time.

I am nervous about what the resolution will be with the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) and I was especially nervous the last few days as this blue channel support was being tested and the US Dollar was perched for a breakout.

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CHB Champion Enterprises Setup Looks Good

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chb20090814

CHB Champion Enterprises has had some big volume come in recently (shaded in green on the stock chart above, click on it for full size).  And it is looking like a big move could be coming to the upside.

After a brief multi day spike up in March CHB has not really participated at all in the broad markets super rally.  After that spike up in March CHB pretty much has drifted sideways in what I consider to be a very long consolidation.

It drifted down in mid July in what appears to be a final bottom for CHB.  What is significant is that CHB did not continue to break down to retest the lows of March.  This is important because it is a hint of at least some strength in the stock and says that CHB is strong enough to resist a full retest.  It is good bottoming action I like to see.

Even more significant is that now CHB has had a big surge in volume come in on the recent advance and price seems to be consolidating in a sideways triangle type formation.

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