Tom

The Gold Market Chips are on the Table so Lets Roll

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DX

The gold market chips are on the table and the US Dollar chips are on the table, now lets roll…

The gold price has now touched the top portion of the symmetrical triangle 3 times and the bottom portion 3 times.  One way or the other we will get a resolution.  Time wise I have calculated that the gold price cannot really extend much farther then end of September to make a decision because there is simply no room left inside the triangle.

The thoughts that go through my head when I look at the gold price triangle are something like, “Can this market really get an upside breakout?”, “What if the gold price extends too far into the apex?”, “This chart better start resolving itself SOON”.

The chart above is the seasonal US Dollar chart between the years 1985 and 1999 courtesy the Moore Research Center.  What is interesting about this seasonal chart is that we can see that the US Dollar tends to have a lousy second half of the year statistically between years 1985 and 1999.  And if we look carefully at the chart we can see that the most devastating statistical downside for the US dollar starts at MID AUGUST (we are in mid August 2009 right now) and then continues almost relentlessly until mid October.

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CTIC Cell Therapeutics Part 2

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I am looking at the yahoo finance page for CTIC right now and I see that the DJIA was down 2% today and the Nasdaq was down 2.75% today.  But CTIC closed at 1.57 only a penny down from yesterday and for practical purposes basically unchanged.

I am not posting a new chart of CTIC in this post because the action today was for the most part motionless.  The fact that CTIC was so tame today should speak volumes by itself given the minor beating the broad market took today. 

I realize I am only focusing on one day’s price action but it is still important in my opinion.  CTIC could have taken a beating today, but it didn’t.  Holders of CTIC stock were not willing to part with their shares today and so it is hinting to me that the shares are in strong hands.

We are still in the apex of the symmetrical triangle formation and we have not made any significant moves either to the upside or downside to warrant any kind of real signal.

So this ‘part 2’ on CTIC is basically just to point out the internal strength that appears to be present in CTIC despite the broad market weakness.

The August 24th date I mentioned previously with regard to CTIC has to do with the FDA making a fast track decision for one of CTIC’s drugs.  I cannot confirm this date or if any decision will even occur on that date.  So for now I am going to ignore that date and just keep it in the back of my mind. 

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CEGE Cell Genesys May be building for a Breakout Continuation Move

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I have been watching CEGE closely, another biotech stock in the face of today’s broad market weakness.  It is holding up quite well and I am impressed so far.  I am also impressed in CEGE’s breakout on big volume two days ago that marked a valid break of it’s longer term down trending resistance line … Read more

GLD ETF breaks down below rising channel

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gld20090817

The GLD ETF has broken down below the short term up trending channel which was leading to a breakout out of this large symmetrical triangle pattern.  Gold clearly wants to test everyone’s patience and throw another curve ball at us.

The break down in the GLD today coincides with a breakdown in the broad market and a big move up in the US Dollar.  The GLD is still within the large symmetrical triangle and it is looking like it will come down to test the bottom of this symmetrical triangle.  I really would like to see it hold. 

If it does not hold then something else is going on in the gold market and I may have to rethink bullish possibilities.  I would like to see the GLD ETF hold above the 90 level and most certainly above the 89 level for me to still stay constructive on this market.

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Emini S&P 500 Futures Down Significantly this Morning

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sp50020090817

The Emini S&P 500 Futures are down by over 20 points this morning.  That is the most I have seen them down in the morning for maybe the last month or so.  So it seems we could finally have a real correction to the downside kick in during the last two weeks of August.

I am still seeing a decent amount of upside setups, but this possible downward bias in the S&P 500 the next couple of weeks is worth noting and probably makes it prudent to be more defensive and shorter term the next couple of weeks.  There may be more failure breakouts and continuation breakdowns in individual stocks and the indices for the rest of August.

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A Couple Quick Mentions of ANPI and EPEX

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Someone sent me a quick mention of ANPI in the submit news link at the top of the site here.  They indicated that the pattern was similar to the CTIC stock setup that I mentioned yesterday.  I just wanted to be sure to pass this info on to you and only make a few quick comments.

My quick take on ANPI is that yes it is similar, but for now I still think that CTIC has the stronger pattern and a cleaner pattern.  ANPI at first glance seems to have had a larger retracement and a somewhat more scattered triangle.  Anyway, no in depth analysis here but wanted to pass this info.  Maybe I will do a short write up of ANPI this week if it has merit.

I believe the same person also reminded me that EPEX was beginning to break out of pattern that I had written about before.

epex20090816

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