Tom – Page 20 – Best Online Trades

Back to BOT Long at 1295 Riding the Bull Once Again

February 7, 2012June 28, 2011 by Tom

I am switching back to the BOT Long signal at 1295. The bulls are running the show here still. The bears FAILED to break under the mid March 2011 high volume swing low and they had plenty of chances. So this only means one thing.. bullish price action ahead and possibly very bullish and longer … Read more

Back to BOT Long if sp500 Breaks Above 1296 or Higher Convincingly

February 7, 2012June 28, 2011 by Tom

The sp500 has been basing sideways for about 2 weeks. The market is neither going down or up. But my sense is that it wants to blast higher again into 4th July 2011 for a while. However I will not switch to a new BOT Long signal unless we see the sp500 close and break … Read more

Quarterly Long Term sp500 Chart Summarizes the Bull or Bear Case

February 7, 2012June 27, 2011 by Tom

The bull case and bear case is never really totally clear unless you branch out to the much longer time frames.

Based on the quarterly sp500 chart I can only make the conclusion that the market is still in a potential zone for more bearishness and also in a potential zone for more bullishness. You will understand what I mean when you look at the chart below.

The fact is that the sp500 has been trading in a 10+ year long trading channel sideways in nature with a slight downward slope. There are two more quarters for trading in 2011 and if you look at the chart below you will see that as long as the two trading quarters are still supported by the dotted blue up trend line, then the market is on track for a massive 10 year channel break out.

Monthly sp500 Price Chart Shows that July is Key Determinant Month

February 7, 2012June 27, 2011 by Tom

The low in the sp500 for June so far was 1258. Today we had a nice sized rally. With just 3 trading days left in the month of June the market now has the option to create a larger June monthly bottoming tail which shows demand, or continue down the last 3 trading days of June and perhaps even more so into the start of July.

Presently it is looking like the market wants to create more of a bottoming tail for June that could see the market rally into early July.

In the chart below this would create a June monthly candlestick with a longer demand tail and then create greater probability that we could see a rally as high as 1330 which is the top boundary of the current ‘mini bear’.

Assuming that actually does happen, then we could see 1330 hold as bear market resistance leading to a flat to slightly down August 2011 and then maybe a much more meaningful drop in the typically very bearish seasonally September.

Is the Market Building Steam to Bust Down or Up

February 7, 2012June 27, 2011 by Tom

What is the verdict? The sp500 has for the last couple of weeks been trading in a rectangle formation with bit moves to the upside and big moves to the downside. Add up one big up move minus one big down move and the net result is zero progress. Or is it?

Well it is progress towards an eventual outcome that will either be bearish or bullish.

The Bullish Case

The bullish interpretation is that the current trading rectangle formation is a pausing point of the recent mini bear and then a reversal point where prices consolidate and then bust out north from the rectangle.

The bullish interpretation is currently supported by the fact that the recent mini foundation of price work is on a lower relative volume than occurred on the SPY in mid March 2011. That would seem to support the case that the current rectangle is serving as a pause point and reversal point.

Bullish Hammer Failed Yesterday BOT Short Signal Still Intact

February 7, 2012June 24, 2011 by Tom

This is really a weak tape again today.. the bullish hammer of yesterday was a fluke and no follow through today. The tape looks weak to me and 1250 now looks like it will be busted eventually possibly into July 2011.

This is bearish for the overall market for the longer term. Unless by some miracle the market can stage an end of day rally to close flat today, this is setting up for much more down in the weeks ahead.

I continue to remain on the BOT Short signal for the sp500 despite my cheerleading yesterday about the big hammer reversal. Remember, regardless of what I express in these postings, if I am on a BOT Short signal, then that is my preferred bias and committed signal REGARDLESS of what I am venting about in my postings in between.

The US Dollar continues to show strength and may catch a longer term bid. The administrations actions yesterday to try to pump the market with the crude oil release may now be seen as a total act of desperation as they see signs the economy wants to contract again..

One of the Most Pivotal Days in Market Memory June 23 2011

February 7, 2012June 23, 2011 by Tom

After further review I have come to the conclusion that today may have been one of the most pivotal days in my market memory for quite some time. It was pivotal in the sense of the very high SPY volume and in terms of the end of day reversal. The heavy volume during the middle … Read more

EXAS Exact Sciences also Looking for a Northward Breakout

February 7, 2012June 23, 2011 by Tom

EXAS or Exact Sciences is another biotech that looks like it wants to bust north soon. Again at the risk sounding too repetitive, the biotechs are marching along higher despite the recent destruction in the major indices. This is a positive sign for the group and can allow them to be leaders when the market … Read more

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals IRWD about to bust our North

February 7, 2012June 23, 2011 by Tom

IRWD Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is another biotech and it looks like it wants to bust out north pretty soon, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. I already have been talking about how biotech is the ‘hot’ sector right now and pretty much could care less what the rest of the market wants to do.. Biotech wants to … Read more

ANOTHER Whipsaw Signal

February 7, 2012June 23, 2011 by Tom

It appears as though today may be yet ANOTHER whipsaw signal on the sp500 delivered by yours truly. The market cannot make up its mind whether it wants to go down or up and I am cannot either. I am getting thrown around in the spin cycle of a washing machine.

Today was another good example why it is usually not a good idea to get a strong conviction during trading hours as opposed to the closing price and final message of the market.

The close today was a high volume shakeout reversal on most indices that printed a strong looking reversal hammer on a candlestick basis.

After today’s close the upside is looking more favorable again. What a difference a few hours can make!

But you know what ? I would rather be ‘light footed’ giving multiple whipsaw bad signals as I have during the last 2 weeks instead of being ‘heavy footed’ stubbornly sticking to a bearish signal and then getting crushed and staying in denial when the market goes against me. Light footed is a good thing sometimes.

I may have to switch back to a BOT long signal again depending on how things look into next week.