Tom

Rally Time

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I shorted more VXX today via puts in the belief that we are about to see a bullish rally in the market perhaps into the end of August.  Makes sense to see some end of quarter window dressing to try to salvage some mutual fund performance scorecards.  I have to say I am quite surprised … Read more

sp500 Bounce did not Work

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This market is too tough to call right now.  The bounce did not work and the VXX break down did not work.  I have to describe today as bearish but cannot conclude that the market will blast higher or lower from here.  But the bias seems to be more weakness. If we truly are in … Read more

Some Type of Low is In

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I think we have a bottom for now.  I am seeing volume reversal signals on VXX and the SPY.  We hit a volume blow out yesterday and we should head higher from here or at least bounce a bit. Fear turns into greed very quickly. There will eventually be another huge shorting opportunity down the … Read more

Shorted the VXX

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I shorted the VXX just now with short term puts at 33 and change.  The VXX is likely to COLLAPSE.  Not permanently but at least maybe for a day or two… it is extreme overbought and this VXX can really drop like a rock with fear easing off only a little bit… I am also … Read more

Volume Suggesting Crash Not Done Yet

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The volumes Mid day on the QQQ and SPY are suggesting to me that we have not climaxed yet on the crash that is currently underway.  The candlestick we had last Friday was a doji candlestick.  It was failed to be confirmed today as a reversal signal and therefore I have to conclude that we … Read more

Crash or Bounce on Monday August 8 2011

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My mind has been contemplating a few possibilities for this upcoming week.  Certainly it is probably one of the most anticipated weeks of trading ever in the USA stock market. The world world knows about the downgrade of the USA credit rating by now, but what does this mean for the markets on Monday? A … Read more

Sp500 in Full TILT Crash Mode

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The sp500 today was not able to bounce as I thought it would.  Instead the market chose to take the full crash mode option.  There is not other way to describe this type of move.  This is an all out crash and it has similarities to the 1987 style crash. We are about 10% down … Read more

SPY Bottomed Today

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Today the SPY ETF Bottomed with a bullish spring formation in relation to the 3/16/2011 price swing low.  It was a bullish spring and rejection of that 3/16 low and volume shrunk by about 21%. 

So it is clear to me that we have bottomed in the short term and are now set to work higher in some type of counter trend rally higher.  This may end up being a low volume rally higher relative to the recent heavy volume decline and would set up a possible ideal re shorting opportunity in mid to late August 2011.

It is quite clear to me that the next big decisive move in the market will occur in the late August to early September 2011 time frame.

Counter trend rallies can sometimes extend a lot higher than at first thought.  I am thinking the SPY could get to the 130 to 131 range with an outside possibility of 132.5 as the most optimistic scenario.  The weakest bounce scenario would be about 128.5.

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