Tom The VIX is breaking down bad today. The market has at least so far intra day rejected the bearish case. I am seeing enough signs now that this decline has extinguished itself. The market should have been down 500 points by now and should be down 600 by the close today. It is not looking … Read more
The volatility index continues to dance along its smooth up trend line and continues to fill out this apparent symmetrical triangle formation which typically is a continuation pattern. Today the VIX engulfed yesterdays small candle body and closed near the highs. Everything about the VIX current pattern, structure and duration seems to suggest it wants … Read more
The sp500 finds itself in a volatile trading range. I have gone back and forth in my mind trying to determine bullish scenarios and bearish ones. When I start to contemplate a near term bearish scenario (like lots more downside within 5 trading days) I run into the problem of the market being very oversold … Read more
I think I have to change my opinion from what I said in my previous post. In the previous post I was basically saying that we have the potential to bounce to 1250 in the sp500. I am not so sure any more. Bear market rules apply here. And in bear markets bounces tend to … Read more
The market looks like it wants to bounce higher into early September. Today there was a bullish divergence on several indices and we should see more upside follow through in the next 5 to 15 trading days. Two days ago we had an inverse hammer in the sp500 and today it was confirmed as a … Read more
After looking at a couple of daily charts on the sp500 versus the MACD histogram I have to advise a lot of caution at this point on the short side of the market. Why? Because I am seeing a possible bullish divergence. If we close higher today semi strong it could open a possible door … Read more
I was recently studying a possible correlation between the VIX volatility index behavior of 2008 mini crash and the current market correction to see if it can help identify how mature the current decline is relative to the 2008 period. I have oft stated before that comparing previous portions of price action to present market … Read more
The sp500 today showed bearish action to me. Today was a HUGE opportunity to bounce this market and close on the HIGHS, OR bounce this market, then sell off near the close, but then FINISH at the highs or near the top of the range. Was it accomplished? No. The tape looks quite weak to … Read more
We currently appear to be inside of a slow motion stock market crash that is breaking down from a large broadening top formation as well as a head and shoulders top formation. BestOnlineTrades issued a BOT short signal way back on July 28, 2011 and since then the market has basically plummeted like a rock. … Read more
I am issuing a BOT Re Short Signal right now in the sp500 at 1188. I am thinking part of this rally is cooked for now and we could resume down again at the minimum to the lower portion of the trading range. I am unclear if this is ‘the’ one and only re short … Read more