Tom

Gold Futures Gold ETFs and Gold Stocks Blockbuster Trade Alert

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alert

BestOnlineTrades is issuing this blockbuster trade alert on the gold sector.  Whether it be Gold Futures, Gold ETFS (such as the GLD or DGP ETF), micro cap through large cap gold stocks, or even long dated call options, we believe the gold trade will be the most popular and productive trade for the next 9 to 12 months.

This is a very important alert and we feel that this alert may go down in history as being the most valuable and important alert we have ever issued. 

BestOnlineTrades has studied the gold market carefully since 2003.  We have seen and recognized the beginnings of this bull market at that time and feel that right now, perhaps even as soon as this week the gold trade will activate and turn into one of the biggest breakouts the world has ever seen.  It may not seem like a breakout at first, and it may disguise itself by transforming into a ‘slow motion’ breakout, but we believe it will still be seen in hindsight as being transformational.

While we do not talk too much about fundamentals here at BestOnlineTrades, we remain open to the possibility that inflationary trends will start to become more entrenched and severe during the next 9 to 12 months.  Part of the reason for this observation has to do with the fact that the US Dollar Index precisely aligned and topped with the April 21st, 2009 Marty Armstrong Cycle date precisely.  The Marty Armstrong Cycle is a very powerful 8.6 year global business cycle model that has proven itself to pick extremely important turning points in major markets worldwide.  The fact that the US Dollar has aligned itself to the model is an event in our opinion that is not to be taken lightly.

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ETFC Etrade Financial in a Bullish Stance

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ETFC20090801

I continue to like ETFC Etrade Financial here.  I like the way it pushed into the gap on 20 million extra shares (illustrated by the two yellow arrows).  To me that is a bullish sign.  It has also managed to break through the bottom blue line which represents the bottom portion of this trading range which should act as support going forward.

The fact that price was able to break back into this trading range is very bullish indeed.  After it broke through and down the blue support line near the 1.35 level, the price of ETFC was supposed to continue falling and continue making bear market lows under 1 dollar.  But the bears could not accomplish that and price recovered back inside the trading range.  Now it has been flat lining sideways.

If ETFC can hold these levels with a worst case of a quick retest of the blue support line at 1.35, it could lead to a large run near the 1.95 level which would be an ideal exit point.

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US Steel X Almost done creating Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

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It really is quite amazing. I feel like a kid in a candy store.  There are so many long side setups now that it is hard not to find one out there.  It is a result of the strong bullish persistence in the broad market as it rebounds out of the depths of its bear … Read more

What do Animals Have to do with Trading ?

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cheetah7

I started a new category here called ‘Trading Psychology’ so that I can occasionally talk about aspects of trading that are more intangible. I can tell you with zero doubt that one of the most difficult aspects of trading that has challenged me time and time again is the tendency towards over trading when there really are not any good trades to be had.

That’s where patience comes in, and that is why I posted a picture of a cheetah in this post waiting in the tall grasses of (Africa?) to scope out its target and see if if can find something interesting to chase.  I don’t know how long cheetahs wait in the fields before they scope out a target and attack.  But I doubt they just run into the field paws flapping everywhere and then just chase and jump on the next moving zebra over the hill. 

They take their time, they scope out a target, they are extremely patient.  Heck most animals and pets I know of are very patient.  Certainly not all of them are, but I would say most of them are.  So it is not just cheetahs.

So most traders can probably learn a lot from the cheetah and most other animals and pets.  Try to avoid rushing to find a trade during the trading day, and then in panicky fashion buying something because it ‘looks good’.

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A Quick Review of How BestOnlineTrades is Doing

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I have written about a number of different stocks here at BestOnlineTrades and this posts serves as a quick informal review of what we have talked about and what we have learned based on our observations.

I don’t claim to be a ‘guru’ or a ‘super legendary’ stock picker.  But I can tell you that since the year 1994 I have looked at tens of thousands of stock price charts, if not more. I have spent so much time looking at all these charts that I really feel as though many patterns and setups are permanently in my DNA.  If you watch something closely enough or spend enough time with it, it seems only natural that you will begin to become very familiar with it over time and know what to watch for depending on what you are trying to achieve. I have seen patterns, I have watched price and volume, I have seen really large patterns and very short term ones.

So the habit of looking at so many price charts has definitely helped to develop a good sense of what is a buy, and why it is a buy.  On the other hand, looking at too many price charts too much of the time can lead to trader burnout and that is not so good either.  So definitely a balance is necessary.

Ok before I ramble on too long, lets take a quick look at what I talked about over the last few weeks and what the result was if anything:

  • PIR – first mentioned slightly under 2.30, hit a high of 2.84 or 23%
  • JVA – first mentioned at 3.20, hit a high of 3.85 or 20%, I believe this one is going to move pretty soon to the upside.
  • FITB – mentioned at 7.70, hit a high of 9.51 or 23%
  • CEMJQ – mentioned at .275, hit a high of .415 or 51%
  • IDOI – first mentioned at .0023, hit a high of .0063 today or 174%
  • BEHL – first mentioned at .0255, hit a high of .10 today or 292%
  • ETFC – first mentioned at 1.54, today is at 1.50 for a loss of (2.6)%, but I am still very bullish on ETFC and believe the upside move is coming shortly
  • CNXT – mentioned today at 1.50, no change yet, still building something
  • PACR – mentioned today at 2.22, closed at 2.48, or up 11.7 %
  • EPEX –mentioned at .43 but said no signal given yet which it still hasn’t given.
  • UNG – mentioned at 13.80, today at 12.85, loss of (6.8%), here I still believe that UNG is trying to form a longer term bottom. If the most recent lows hold then look out above. We could see a huge rally. 
  • PLM – mentioned a few days ago at 1.44, today at 1.67, up 16%
  • SRSR – mentioned at .081 – currently in play and expecting an upside reactionary bounce.

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Powershares QQQ Trust does not want to Retrace

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Today the powershares QQQ Trust, symbol (QQQQ) tested the gap from yesterday on about 25% less volume.  It has become clear to me at this point that any decline we get from here is going to be labored and lacking in conviction.

I still think 37.20 is fair game for a target on the QQQ Trust in August, but there are a few reasons why this may be delayed short term.  One of the reasons is the US Dollar index, which broke down badly today.  I am going to write a post on the US Dollar in a moment.  A declining US dollar is supporting higher prices in the broad market.

I should also mention that major topside resistance on the QQQ Trust comes in near the 42 and change level.  That level represents the primary bear market trend that began way back in October of 2007.  It is in my opinion a very significant level and one that we will be watching closely going forward. At the current rate the QQQ is travelling, we might just get there within a month or two.

It seems almost a foregone conclusion that this level will be tested.  The nature of the test on the weekly charts is going to be very important to watch.  If we see price bump its head on that down trend and have a fast reaction down, it could be a warning sign that the down trending resistance line will hold and not be broken.

On the other hand if we see price hug the bottom of that resistance line for say a month or two, then it could be a bullish sign and we might see a massive upside breakout through that bear market force.

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PACR Pacer International Setting up for a Breakout

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PACR

BestOnlineTrades recently developed a powerful new computer scan that scans over four thousand five hundred different stocks (Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange).  It is a superb scan because out of that entire list of 4500 plus stocks it only returned 1/3 of 1% as viable candidates! (.27%)  And it typically seems to only return a maximum of 20 stocks each day.  That is extremely valuable not only because of time savings, but also because of the quality of the candidates it seems to find.  It is a custom scan I developed that uses a combination of two very powerful indicators.  One of them happens to be an indicator that the famous Jake Bernstein likes to use a lot.  But when used in combination with our own custom indicator, the quality factor goes up 5 fold.

PACR Pacer International is one of the stocks that came up in the scan and we are glad that it did, because it looks quite good to these eyes.  The few months to the left of this chart are also significant (not shown on the chart above) because in March PACR did a nose dive into the 1.7 range area, then it rebounded to the 5 level only to fall back where we currently are in this congestion area.

So one could say that the current retracement is a complex double bottom and now we have built sideways cause here for about a month and are perched just under the resistance line close to the mid 2’s.

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Quick Update on Sarissa Resources

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I just wanted to do a quick update on Sarissa Resources (SRSR).  Yesterday I said that I believed that the .081 low yesterday would probably be the final low.  Well today we took out that low slightly and closed at .083 .

I still think that we are going to get a violent upside reaction rally in SRSR pretty soon.  It may be good for 30 to 50% profits.  The real rule though is that we just do not want to see SRSR trade below today’s low.  As long as it does not do that, and maybe gets an inside bar, then I think the upside reaction could start.

You might say it is like trying to catch a falling knife.  Well not exactly.  Sometimes you can catch a falling knife if you are very very careful in how you go about it. 

I have seen this trading pattern many times already, and they have looked quite similar to the pattern in SRSR right now.  The fact that SRSR is a pinksheet stock does not really change the scenario or the final outcome.

One of the most famous upside automatic rally reactions I can remember was in a company called Taser Corp.  They are still public (symbol TASR) now but the stock has been languishing for years now.  But previously when they had enormous momentum the price hit a superbly exciting peak, but then literally crashed down similar to the way SRSR has now crashed.  But then sure enough an automatic rally ensued that took the stock into a violent trading range for months.

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