Here are a couple of charts on the 30 year T Bond Futures. Steven J Williams who graciously allowed me to repost his ‘ Is a US Bond Crash Coming ‘ article makes a compelling case that we may eventually see a US T Bond Crash, maybe in 2005?
At the Brink of a Break Down
It is an exciting forecast, but the range of possibilities here are quite diverse. A crash could actually be a multi year event. It does not necessarily have to be a sudden very short time frame event. Just look at the 1929 crash and how long that took. The scary thing was to them at the time it probably did not seem much like a crash. They only realized it many years later after they had enough perspective.
The chart to the left is the quarterly price bar chart of 30 Year T Bond Futures. It shows that on a quarterly basis (quarter is ending after a few more days in March) we have just completed a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Also since 1999, the over all pattern appears to be a very large symmetrical triangle or coil. That is a very large amount of cause for a big move. It is looking like the move will be down, perhaps fast down. I am no elliott wave expert, but if we break through the lower blue trendline, this could mean we are in a C wave down in elliottwave terms which are usually the fastest and most destructive waves in terms of price loss and time. Also note the quarterly MACD that is about to crossover to the down side further confirming the possibility of bearish break down below the triangle’s outer boundaries. The crossover has not officially occured yet however.
Daily 30 Year T Bond Futures show Major Sign of Weakness
Zooming into the daily chart you can clearly see that T Bond Futures elected to do a major sign of weakness breaking support and now opening up the door to further price weakness and trend.
The whole market environment sure is becoming interesting as it seems to have a habit of doing from time to time. Gold and commodities at intermediate term trend change. Bonds at crucial juncture. S P Futures and broad market also at intermediate term trend change?
Plenty to keep track of as time rolls on.
Upcoming charts include the S P 500, XAU gold index, another super long term chart of Gold and another Gold stock that has a compelling long term potential set up.
Peace.
Have a great weekend.
tc